Retail vs. Foodservice: The biggest risk in the market is the disappearance of the muddled middle

INSIGHT - Average has become a danger zone. Traditional restaurants and classic local shops are crumbling. Indecision regarding positioning and strategic inertia are ticking time bombs for the various players in the sector.

In the battle for the consumer's wallet , data from the Cube, our proprietary data model, revealed an intensification of competition between mass retailers and the foodservice sector, with categories influencing commercial strategies. But what category data doesn't yet reveal is the extent of the ongoing restructuring of the market itself.

The Belgian foodservice industry is polarizing at an accelerated pace. On one side, there's a fast, functional, frictionless offering: the ultra-optimized quick-service restaurant, the supermarket food corner, 30-minute delivery. On the other, there's a slower, experiential, social offering: the gourmet restaurant, the ultra-premium €9 coffee shop, the hybrid sports-restaurant subscription concept. In between, the middle ground is emptying out.

The average restaurant is neither quick enough to be convenient nor immersive enough to be a destination, failing on both counts. It's too expensive to compete with the local Jumbo's food court and too ordinary to justify an outing in the true sense of the word. The same goes for the gas station, which offers a convenience (drinks and snacks) but at prices too high for what is, at best, a basic experience in older concepts.

It is this intermediate segment that accounts for the majority of closures. And this is not expected to improve. It is therefore necessary for market players to find where value can be created: what opportunity, what consumer, what experience to provide, and at what price?

🟧Out-of-home dining accounts for 29% of food spending (€15.8 billion) in Belgium, compared to 71% for supermarkets and hypermarkets (€39.2 billion). This retail dominance intensifies the pressure on mid-sized restaurants, which struggle to differentiate themselves. This is especially true given that the restaurant market is divided between traditional restaurants, representing €6.7 billion, and fast food (QSR), which captures €2.4 billion. Institutions follow (€2.2 billion), ahead of cafes and bars (€1.2 billion).

What this changes for brands and wholesalers

This is where the market restructuring becomes concrete for upstream players.

For a manufacturer, market polarization necessitates choosing a specific niche. A premium product is designed for experiential channels: fine dining restaurants, upscale coffee shops, and hybrid concepts where the product is integral to the brand story. A functional product must be designed for convenience: format, price, and logistics tailored to quick-service restaurants, food corners, and delivery. Trying to serve both with the same offering will only lead to failure, stuck in the middle of the market.

For a wholesaler, the stakes are even higher. Their most vulnerable customers are precisely those in the middle: the operators who haven't yet chosen sides, who resist polarization due to a lack of resources or vision. Supporting them is good. But guiding them in their repositioning—upward or toward greater efficiency—is better. The wholesaler who can anticipate the direction of their customer portfolio before closures do will have a decisive advantage.

The market no longer rewards averageness. It rewards clarity of positioning. Retail or foodservice, experience or convenience, high value or low cost—the question is no longer about choosing the right channel. It's about choosing the right opportunity, and being better at it than everyone else.