Belgium, the kingdom of fries... with a few exceptions
INSIGHT - The Belgian market is symbolically perceived as the epitome of the fry shop. However, data paints a more nuanced picture, suggesting that another product range dominates the fast-food sector. This quantifiable reality could redefine location and offering strategies.
Hw can one resist temptation? The Gondola Foodservice Congress hosted Eline Biesmans and Robert Van Impe this Thursday, better known as CEO and influencer Average Rob, the driving force behind the up-and-coming frietkots chain La Patate , as well as Julien Abras , the founder of Fritapapa, a chain with 21 locations already. The occasion certainly warranted a detailed market study of our chip shop kingdom.
We compiled a ranking of the seven main districts in Belgium based on the number of fast-food outlets. Within this sample, we examined the distribution of the main culinary specialties as a percentage of the number of outlets. And one observation immediately stands out: the sandwich reigns supreme, occupying the top spot in the fast-food category in the majority of cases.
And the capital presents the most paradoxical exception: in Brussels, fry shops represent only 8.4% of the fast food market, far behind sandwich shops, kebab shops, and Asian eateries. Not to mention that the kebab-shawarma duo seems ubiquitous, appearing in the top three in almost every district.
That being said, it's important to note that a district is not a large city; it encompasses the central city and surrounding municipalities. This forms a catchment area, a consumer base. This distinction is important for interpreting the data.
The city of Turnhout alone has approximately 48,000 inhabitants. However, the Turnhout district covers a large part of the Campine region and has ten times that population, making it a vast peri-urban and rural area.
The Brussels-Capital Region includes the nineteen municipalities of Brussels. It is a hyper-dense and urban area with more than 1.4 million inhabitants.
Passersby vs. residents
Our mapping doesn't show a city vs. rural divide, but rather a contrast between districts with very high urban density and predominantly residential districts. For a restaurant/café operator, whether owner, franchisee, or even investor, this commercial distribution not only measures the presence of competitors but also reflects the structure of consumption patterns. This could explain the collapse of the French fry market in the Brussels region. Supply is dominated by the flow of urban workers and the cosmopolitan nature of the area.
The districts of Antwerp, Liège, and Ghent have a significant number of establishments. The influence of their major urban and economic hubs places sandwiches and salads in first place everywhere. But unlike Brussels, these districts include large residential suburbs, potentially explaining why snacks are so resilient there.
The districts of Turnhout, Hasselt, and Leuven cover large areas comprised of dozens of small towns and villages. This dispersed network is the historical playground of the neighborhood or village frituur. In these areas, less concentrated in office towers, sandwiches take a back seat.
Further potential for "snackification"?
To move beyond mere observation and delve deeper into the analysis of these dynamics, it is useful to compare the weighted averages of the three categories: snacks, sandwich shops, and kebabs, taking into account the market size of each district relative to the total number of outlets. Given that Brussels has the largest number of such establishments, it appears that filled rolls occupy a larger overall share, with 24.13% of the market. However, fries still account for 22.78%, while kebabs represent 15%.
It remains to be seen how to put this data into action, ideally to launch a new QSR concept or expand an existing network. The figures can help determine where to set up shop first and, more importantly, where not to set up shop. Given the underrepresentation of snack bars in the capital region (while the city of Brussels is undertaking a project to combat the proliferation of snacks around its Grand-Place), is this an opportunity? A more granular analysis will be needed to objectively assess the lack of direct competition, so as not to have to wrest it away from well-established rivals.
Conversely, opening a fry shop in Turnhout (where the market already accounts for 43%) would require very high customer acquisition costs, if only to convince customers to change their habits. Alternatively, it could open the door to fast-casual dining , a model halfway between classic fast food and a traditional restaurant: quick counter service, but with fresh, balanced, and higher-quality products.
In Antwerp and Ghent, the significant share of the sandwich and salad segment plausibly indicates a large number of people who enjoy quick lunches. A poke concept would meet this demand by offering a more modern alternative. This contrasts with Hasselt, which suggests a population less drawn to this type of on-the-go lunch break. Meanwhile, in Leuven, kebabs represent less than 10% of the offerings—an unusually low figure for a student city, wouldn't you say?
📢 SOLD OUT!
