Too expensive for Belgians, not enough for restaurant owners

INSIGHT - The price of a three-course meal for two has entered a new dimension. In seven years, it has risen from 61 to 80 euros, according to our data model (+30%). But while customers are wincing at their bills, restaurant managers are also grimacing at their accounts.

A price should never be interpreted in isolation. A quick tour of Europe provides a better understanding. In Belgium and the Netherlands, the average price for a similar menu, excluding drinks, is around 80 euros. According to Gondola Foodservice's data model, combined with Numbeo's* statistics, the average price of a three-course meal for two people in a "standard" restaurant has risen from 61 to 80 euros since 2019. That's an increase of nearly 30%.

France, on the other hand, lags far behind its northern neighbors with an average price close to €60, or 25% less. At the other extreme, Switzerland is far more expensive, charging €107 for a comparable menu. Conversely, in Kosovo, the same menu costs only €20. These differences primarily reflect variations in wages and the cost of living, and more broadly, the disparities in living standards across Europe. From the restaurateurs' perspective, the price increases have not offset the actual rise in raw material costs.

The bill could and even should have been even higher.

At first glance, a 30% increase in seven years may seem spectacular. However, this figure pales when compared to the actual inflation experienced by the sector. Inspired by

In our analysis of Horeca Forma Be Pro, we examined this development by comparing it with the consumer goods price index.

In Belgium, cumulative inflation on food products exceeded 40% between 2019 and 2025. This surge was fueled first by the Covid crisis and the disruption of supply chains, then by the invasion of Ukraine, which triggered a major energy crisis, the most severe since the 1970s according to the OECD. As a result, food prices have risen faster than meal prices, particularly since mid-2022.

In other words, restaurant owners absorbed a significant portion of the inflationary shock. And this occurred in a sector with historically low margins: the operating margin barely reached 5.7% in 2024.

Restaurateurs, unwitting shock absorbers of the crisis

This acquisition is not a strategic choice. Rather, it stems from a constraint, dictated by the fear of disrupting demand and driving away customers already under real or perceived pressure on their purchasing power.

Of course, this interpretation assumes unchanged consumer behavior.

But these have changed dramatically. In supermarkets, consumers are turning

more towards store brands, pay more attention to promotions and

they are making more careful decisions about their spending.

In the restaurant sector, the dynamics are similar: fewer visits, more attention to the average check, and a shift towards more affordable formats or establishments. These trade-offs also apply to the offering side. The median operating margin for restaurants increased from 4% in 2019 to 5.7% in 2024. 2020 was an exception, with the margin falling to -1.4% due to Covid, before rebounding in 2021 (6.3%) thanks to exceptional government aid.

But this apparent improvement masks a harsher reality: closures of the most vulnerable establishments, staff reductions, shorter hours, and restricted menus. These are all adjustments that are sometimes painful, but necessary to allow part of the sector to stay afloat.

* Numbeo is a crowdsourced cost of living database with 9,709,315 prices in 12,628 cities

entered by 872,928 contributors. (via Jan Willem van Tilburg)