Belgian restaurateurs have lessons to learn from the US

INSIGHT - Looking at America isn't about copying; it's about predicting. While the US model cannot be replicated here as-is, it remains the best radar for upcoming phenomena. An analysis of a near future already crossing the Atlantic, to understand how perceptions are evolving there and how to better monetize the offer here.

Observing the US market remains an essential exercise for understanding restaurant industry dynamics. Not because the model is directly transposable to Belgium, but because it often acts as a bellwether, sitting a few months or even years ahead of the European market.

The recent McKinsey study on US consumer expectations for restaurants by 2026 sheds light on these shifts, provided we recall a fundamental reality: the US and Belgium do not play on the same field.

Same Trends, Different Places

In the US, more than half of food and beverage spending occurs away from home. Dining out therefore occupies a central place in household budgets, far beyond what is observed in Belgium, where out-of-home consumption represents only about 30%.

The supply landscape is just as contrasting. The US market is largely dominated by fast food and QSR formats, which outweigh traditional sit-down dining. In Belgium, the situation is reversed. Sit-down dining still accounts for nearly 80% of the market, driven by a dense network of independent establishments.

A Deeply Re-evaluated Perception of Value

One of the central findings of the McKinsey study concerns the evolution of value perception. After several years of inflation and in a context of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, US consumers are re-examining the value associated with each restaurant visit. This pressure on purchasing power is not resulting in massive disengagement, but rather in finer, more demanding trade-offs.

Value for money has now become the primary decision-making criterion. The notion of value goes far beyond the displayed price: it encompasses the concept, product quality, portion generosity, and the overall coherence of the experience. The consumer is not looking for the lowest price, but for a price they deem legitimate.

This interpretation resonates strongly with the Belgian market. According to a Gondola Foodservice study, only one in four consumers considers a low price more important than quality. Budgetary constraints therefore primarily reinforce the demand for consistency, rather than driving consumers toward discount options.

Consumers Are Changing Their Habits

Data from the McKinsey study shows that consumer trade-offs now focus less on frequency than on how each visit is experienced. Restaurants are still frequented, but they are evaluated as an experience whose value must be justified on every occasion.

The social dimension remains central, particularly for Millennials (28-43) and Gen Z (18-27). In the US, these generations continue to dine out despite economic constraints, as restaurants remain a place for social connection.

This reality is just as marked in Belgium, where 74% of consumers state they go to restaurants primarily for the pleasure of socializing.

In this context, budgetary trade-offs occur mainly inside the restaurant. Consumers prefer to adjust their choices within their go-to establishment rather than switching venues. This internal down-trading reinforces the importance of a clear pricing architecture and loyalty propositions integrated into a revenue growth management logic, in order to preserve revenue per visit without deteriorating the perception of value.

Channel choice follows the same logic. Value-conscious consumers favor take-away over delivery, retaining convenience while limiting increasingly contested additional fees. This trend is marked in the US and is also growing in Belgium, where the price differential is becoming a determining factor.

Health Is Establishing Itself as a Structuring Factor

In the US, a significant share of consumers plans to reduce their consumption of burgers and pizzas, while a much smaller proportion envisages reducing spending on salads. This shift is accompanied by a rise in protein-rich menus, as well as the growth of alcohol-free, sugar-free, and mocktail options. In Belgium, consumers are clearly expressing increased expectations for healthier out-of-home options.

Finally, US data highlights the potential of expanding consumption moments. Breakfast, late-night, all-day dining, or on-the-go breakfast formats (especially beverages) allow for better utilization of space and teams.

In Belgium, these dayparts remain largely under-exploited, even though they represent a lever for value creation in a context of high fixed costs.

Priority for Restaurants and Their Suppliers

In this context, restaurants, with a median operating margin of 5.7%, struggle to deliver a value proposition aligned with their cost structure. But this is precisely where the opportunity lies: Understanding where consumers trade down or agree to spend more, what they want to eat, and how they wish to access the offer is becoming central.

In this equation, technology and artificial intelligence are emerging as essential levers to manage these trade-offs. A subject we will address in a future analysis.