This "global foodservice barometer" shows an industry in the midst of reinvention

Considered one of the worldwide barometers of the out-of-home foodservice industry, the American market is showing a dynamism that bucks the trend. Despite a challenging economic climate and more cautious consumers, this illustrates the resilience of a sector in transition.

“Consumers are navigating a period of economic uncertainty while seeking value, quality, and unique experiences. Leveraging this information is essential for the strategic planning, differentiation, and innovation needed to capture spending in a constantly evolving landscape,” recommends Tim Fires, President of Global Foodservice at Circana.

According to the latest report from the data analytics firm Circana on the size of the out-of-home food service market, spending by restaurants and other establishments in the U.S. food industry reached $357.3 billion in June 2025. This represents a 3.7% increase compared to the same period a year earlier. Circana forecasts that this figure will rise to $385 billion by June 2028 (a compound annual growth rate of 2.5%).

Commercial catering and return to work

This modest but solid growth is based on changing consumer behavior. With the gradual return to the office and renewed mobility, opportunities to consume outside the home are multiplying again.

The fast casual and full-service restaurant segments are particularly successful, meeting the demand for quality, varied and affordable meals.

At the same time, non-commercial catering (in businesses, schools, or hospitals) is recovering. Circana anticipates sustained growth in these segments until 2028.

Demanding consumers and normal stabilization

The slowing job market and inflationary pressures are dampening consumer enthusiasm. The days of unrestrained spending seem to be over: households are becoming more selective, making greater choices between necessity and pleasure. In other words, restaurants that focus on a distinctive experience (atmosphere, service, culinary originality) are succeeding in attracting customers who are always looking for meaning and novelty.

While the American market remains unique, its dynamics reveal a fundamental trend valid worldwide: the stabilization of traffic does not signify decline, but rather the entry into a new normal. "Stagnation is the new normal," admits Circana. In this context, growth will not come solely from increased volume, but from a better-defined added value that caters to a more demanding, more informed, and more volatile consumer.